Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.494365 2.637790 2.793017 2.975040 3.184730 3.421431 3.712939
2025-03-16 2.257230 2.441606 2.651747 2.913617 3.238449 3.639258 4.191742
2025-03-23 2.144509 2.360934 2.618038 2.955374 3.402881 4.005906 4.948068
2025-03-30 2.011931 2.238522 2.514608 2.888957 3.408527 4.154761 5.444726
2025-04-06 1.901901 2.132190 2.417990 2.815137 3.386015 4.249912 5.885062
2025-04-13 1.820085 2.053937 2.348878 2.767855 3.390001 4.380546 6.444956
2025-04-20 1.782700 2.028468 2.344864 2.807412 3.525079 4.753860 7.743899
2025-04-27 1.766076 2.027703 2.372208 2.892518 3.742933 5.340978 10.275263
2025-05-04 1.724843 1.991437 2.347489 2.896627 3.826015 5.693737 12.828897
2025-05-11 1.687206 1.957633 2.323406 2.898405 3.903987 6.065123 16.859463
2025-05-18 1.632777 1.898472 2.259796 2.832526 3.848805 6.102032 19.220420
2025-05-25 1.599808 1.867142 2.234249 2.824952 3.901683 6.436743 28.131657
2025-06-01 1.566215 1.834951 2.207680 2.816879 3.959649 6.839594 60.715929
2025-06-08 1.525865 1.791908 2.163192 2.776012 3.946934 7.036795 519.675322
2025-06-15 1.510533 1.783025 2.168480 2.818679 4.114252 7.941543 NaN
2025-06-22 1.470637 1.737962 2.117277 2.760357 4.054573 7.988984 NaN
2025-06-29 1.431017 1.692131 2.063210 2.693926 3.969698 7.906034 NaN
2025-07-06 1.399433 1.656843 2.023867 2.651086 3.933649 8.022157 NaN
2025-07-13 1.388898 1.651153 2.029211 2.687177 4.083842 9.106135 NaN
2025-07-20 1.388262 1.659501 2.056335 2.764521 4.350538 11.324865 NaN
2025-07-27 1.371159 1.643275 2.044174 2.768258 4.433645 12.663654 NaN
2025-08-03 1.354500 1.627154 2.031437 2.769874 4.512114 14.275845 NaN
2025-08-10 1.325710 1.592467 1.987937 2.710059 4.412614 13.919009 NaN